Seasonal Trends in US Ecommerce Sales and Prediction for 2013 to be $2011 Billion
On the 7th of February comScore produced the retail commerce numbers for 2012 (ref: http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2013/2/comScore_Reports_186.2_Billion_in_Full_Year_2012_U.S._Retail_E-Commerce_Spending) which makes good reading for eCommerce retailers with The Next Web headling 'comScore retail commerce hit 186.2bh in 2012 thanks to 15% growth the strongest since before the recession (ref: http://thenextweb.com/insider/2013/02/07/comscore-retail-e-commerce-hit-186-2b-in-2012-thanks-to-15-growth-the-strongest-since-before-the-recession/).
I like numbers. I might not believe them but I trust them more than a headline so I've had a look at these numbers and went back even further to quarterly figures from comScore from 2007 (ref: http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2013/2/comScore_Reports_186.2_Billion_in_Full_Year_2012_U.S._Retail_E-Commerce_Spending). Analysing these numbers (and checking the figures along the way) a pattern can be seen.
NOTE: I've predicted the 2013 numbers
From the simple graph above the yearly trend is as expected with Q4 showing a spike and the other Q showing less interest. If you add up the Q for 2012 you get the number that TNW report - $186.2Bn.
Based on this trend I simply took the difference between the Qs for 2011 to 2012 and added them up to get 2013. Its a crass bit of mathematics but I'm busy and it gives a prediction of $210.8Bn. A lot of money and do you want to know the weird think - its very likely under valued.
Quarterly Differences and Yearly Differences
When look at any numbers its good to see and use the raw data. So if we take the difference between each Q from 2007 to 2012 we get the numbers in the comScore report.
This shows all Q are growing but Q4 is growing the least suggesting that this quarter may have either already peaked and is its showing no percentage increase from the pervious year. Comparing Q is very interesting but what the comScore doesn't do is compare years - adding up all those Qs. I've done it here are this is why my estimation is likely to be wrong (excuse the layout - I'm just trying to suggest the trend.
On this graph my prediction of 210Bn is likely to off as I've not taken into account the compound growth in Q1-Q3. If you were to take this trendline what you the new number be? I need to work out the rough details but in the order of $230Bn may not to be too far off
Numbers below
| Period | Ecom Spend $M | YOY Change | Difference from previous Q | Actual Diff Prev Q | % Q YOY Change/old | Year totals | Actual Diff Prev Year | % Total YOY | % Increase |
| Q1 2007 | 27,970 | 17% | NA | NA | |||||
| Q2 2007 | 27,176 | 23% | NA | NA | |||||
| Q3 2007 | 28,441 | 23% | NA | NA | |||||
| Q4 2007 | 39,132 | 19% | NA | NA | 122,719 | ||||
| Q1 2008 | 31,178 | 11% | 3,208 | 3208 | 11.47% | ||||
| Q2 2008 | 30,581 | 13% | 3,405 | 3405 | 12.53% | ||||
| Q3 2008 | 30,274 | 6% | 1,833 | 1833 | 6.44% | ||||
| Q4 2008 | 38,071 | -3% | -1,061 | -1061 | -2.71% | 130,104 | 7,385 | 6.02% | 6.02% |
| Q1 2009 | 31,031 | 0% | -147 | -147 | -0.47% | ||||
| Q2 2009 | 30,169 | -1% | -412 | -412 | -1.35% | ||||
| Q3 2009 | 29,552 | -2% | -722 | -722 | -2.38% | ||||
| Q4 2009 | 39,045 | 3% | 974 | 974 | 2.56% | 129,797 | -307 | -0.24% | -6.25% |
| Q1 2010 | 33,984 | 10% | 2,953 | 2953 | 9.52% | ||||
| Q2 2010 | 32,942 | 9% | 2,773 | 2773 | 9.19% | ||||
| Q3 2010 | 32,133 | 9% | 2,581 | 2581 | 8.73% | ||||
| Q4 2010 | 43,432 | 11% | 4,387 | 4387 | 11.24% | 142,491 | 12,694 | 9.78% | 10.02% |
| Q1 2011 | 38,002 | 12% | 4,018 | 4018 | 11.82% | ||||
| Q2 2011 | 37,501 | 14% | 4,559 | 4559 | 13.84% | ||||
| Q3 2011 | 36,308 | 13% | 4,175 | 4175 | 12.99% | ||||
| Q4 2011 | 49,698 | 14% | 6,266 | 6266 | 14.43% | 161,509 | 19,018 | 13.35% | 3.57% |
| Q1 2012 | 44,282 | 17% | 6,280 | 6280 | 16.53% | ||||
| Q2 2012 | 43,153 | 15% | 5,652 | 5652 | 15.07% | ||||
| Q3 2012 | 41,936 | 15% | 5,628 | 5628 | 15.50% | ||||
| Q4 2012 | 56,781 | 14% | 7,083 | 7083 | 14.25% | 186,152 | 24,643 | 15.26% | 1.91% |
| Q1 2013 | 50,562 | 14% | 6,280 | 6280 | 14.18% | ||||
| Q2 2013 | 48,805 | 13% | 5,652 | 5652 | 13.10% | ||||
| Q3 2013 | 47,564 | 13% | 5,628 | 5628 | 13.42% | ||||
| Q4 2013 | 63,864 | 12% | 7,083 | 7083 | 12.47% | 210,795 | 24,643 | 13.24% | -2.02% |
