Seasonal Trends in US Ecommerce Sales and Prediction for 2013 to be $2011 Billion

Seasonal Trends in US Ecommerce Sales and Prediction for 2013 to be $2011 Billion

On the 7th of February comScore produced the retail commerce numbers for 2012 (ref: http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2013/2/comScore_Reports_186.2_Billion_in_Full_Year_2012_U.S._Retail_E-Commerce_Spending) which makes good reading for eCommerce retailers with The Next Web headling 'comScore retail commerce hit 186.2bh in 2012 thanks to 15% growth the strongest since before the recession (ref: http://thenextweb.com/insider/2013/02/07/comscore-retail-e-commerce-hit-186-2b-in-2012-thanks-to-15-growth-the-strongest-since-before-the-recession/).

I like numbers. I might not believe them but I trust them more than a headline so I've had a look at these numbers and went back even further to quarterly figures from comScore from 2007 (ref: http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2013/2/comScore_Reports_186.2_Billion_in_Full_Year_2012_U.S._Retail_E-Commerce_Spending). Analysing these numbers (and checking the figures along the way) a pattern can be seen. 

NOTE: I've predicted the 2013 numbers

From the simple graph above the yearly trend is as expected with Q4 showing a spike and the other Q showing less interest. If you add up the Q for 2012 you get the number that TNW report - $186.2Bn.

Based on this trend I simply took the difference between the Qs for 2011 to 2012 and added them up to get 2013. Its a crass bit of mathematics but I'm busy and it gives a prediction of $210.8Bn. A lot of money and do you want to know the weird think - its very likely under valued.

Quarterly Differences and Yearly Differences

When look at any numbers its good to see and use the raw data. So if we take the difference between each Q from 2007 to 2012 we get the numbers in the comScore report. 

This shows all Q are growing but Q4 is growing the least suggesting that this quarter may have either already peaked and is its showing no percentage increase from the pervious year. Comparing Q is very interesting but what the comScore doesn't do is compare years - adding up all those Qs. I've done it here are this is why my estimation is likely to be wrong (excuse the layout - I'm just trying to suggest the trend.

On this graph my prediction of 210Bn is likely to off as I've not taken into account the compound growth in Q1-Q3. If you were to take this trendline what you the new number be? I need to work out the rough details but in the order of $230Bn may not to be too far off

Numbers below

Period	Ecom Spend $M	YOY Change	Difference from previous Q	Actual Diff Prev Q	% Q YOY Change/old	Year totals	Actual Diff Prev Year	% Total YOY	% Increase
Q1 2007	27,970	17%	NA	NA
Q2 2007	27,176	23%	NA	NA
Q3 2007	28,441	23%	NA	NA
Q4 2007	39,132	19%	NA	NA		122,719
Q1 2008	31,178	11%	3,208	3208	11.47%
Q2 2008	30,581	13%	3,405	3405	12.53%
Q3 2008	30,274	6%	1,833	1833	6.44%
Q4 2008	38,071	-3%	-1,061	-1061	-2.71%	130,104	7,385	6.02%	6.02%
Q1 2009	31,031	0%	-147	-147	-0.47%
Q2 2009	30,169	-1%	-412	-412	-1.35%
Q3 2009	29,552	-2%	-722	-722	-2.38%
Q4 2009	39,045	3%	974	974	2.56%	129,797	-307	-0.24%	-6.25%
Q1 2010	33,984	10%	2,953	2953	9.52%
Q2 2010	32,942	9%	2,773	2773	9.19%
Q3 2010	32,133	9%	2,581	2581	8.73%
Q4 2010	43,432	11%	4,387	4387	11.24%	142,491	12,694	9.78%	10.02%
Q1 2011	38,002	12%	4,018	4018	11.82%
Q2 2011	37,501	14%	4,559	4559	13.84%
Q3 2011	36,308	13%	4,175	4175	12.99%
Q4 2011	49,698	14%	6,266	6266	14.43%	161,509	19,018	13.35%	3.57%
Q1 2012	44,282	17%	6,280	6280	16.53%
Q2 2012	43,153	15%	5,652	5652	15.07%
Q3 2012	41,936	15%	5,628	5628	15.50%
Q4 2012	56,781	14%	7,083	7083	14.25%	186,152	24,643	15.26%	1.91%
Q1 2013	50,562	14%	6,280	6280	14.18%
Q2 2013	48,805	13%	5,652	5652	13.10%
Q3 2013	47,564	13%	5,628	5628	13.42%
Q4 2013	63,864	12%	7,083	7083	12.47%	210,795	24,643	13.24%	-2.02%